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Analysis of asphalt price on June 24th, 2016

wallpapers Tech 2020-08-08

The price of asphalt (70% heavy duty asphalt) rose slightly this week, with 1907 yuan / ton of heavy asphalt at the beginning of the week and 1929 yuan / ton at the weekend, with an increase of 1.

11% this week.

Analysis of influencing factors: 1.

Industrial chain analysis of crude oil.

according to the monitoring of business agency, the international oil price fluctuated in a narrow range.

As of Thursday (June 23), the U.S. WTI crude oil futures was at $50.

11/barrel, with a weekly rise and fall of 8.44%. Brent crude oil futures was at $50.

91/barrel, with a weekly rise and fall of 7.88%. This week, there are many good news about the crude oil market.

Firstly, according to the data provided by the National Bureau of statistics, China's crude oil production in May 2016 decreased by 7.

3% to 16.

87 million tons, the largest decline since February 2001.

China's crude oil imports in May reached 32.

24 million tons, at a high level.

Secondly, Rosneft: the oil price is expected to be 50-55 USD / barrel by the end of 2016, and is expected to rise to $65 / barrel by the end of 2017.

Meanwhile, the US EIA crude oil inventory for the week of June 20 was - 917000 barrels, which supported the upward trend of international crude oil prices.

But a report released Friday by Baker Hughes, an oil service provider, showed that the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States increased by nine to 337 this week, the third consecutive week of growth.

The news kept crude oil prices below $50 a barrel.

It is estimated that the international oil price can not stand at the front line of 50 US dollars / barrel in a short period of time. 2. Market analysis In terms of market: first, the ex factory prices of domestic refineries such as Guangzhou Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. rose slightly by 30-50 yuan / ton, but the market trading enthusiasm was general.

second, most parts of the country such as northeast, East China and South China were still troubled by rainy weather this week, the road construction process was hindered, and the demand for asphalt market was weak.

third, the price of imported asphalt was slightly increased by 5 US dollars / ton The FOB price of asphalt in South Korea is 175-180 US dollars / ton, while that of Thailand, Singapore and other countries is 175-185 US dollars / ton, but the trading situation of imported asphalt is not good.

Fourth, the main asphalt futures contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange is 1609, which opened at the beginning of the week and closed in 1970 at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 2.39%. Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with post market forecast, believes that although crude oil bulls have an absolute advantage in terms of China's increased crude oil imports, the decrease in US crude oil inventory, and Russia's optimistic outlook on the future crude oil market, the start-up cost of shale oil production in the United States has obviously dropped to around $50 / barrel, and the international oil price can not exceed $50 / barrel in a short time.

The price of imported asphalt rises, while the ex factory price of domestic refinery asphalt rises at the same time.

However, due to the influence of weather factors, the peak demand of asphalt market is not booming.

It is expected that the spot price of domestic asphalt will remain stable next week, waiting for the release of asphalt demand.


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