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Multiple "pain" not eliminated, methanol futures difficult to revive the rise

wallpapers Tech 2020-09-24

Affected by the international oil price falling to the lowest level in nearly three months and the weak performance of domestic economic data, the domestic methanol futures showed an oscillatory downward trend last week, and the main 1609 contract lost the first line of 1850 yuan / T yesterday.

The strong short atmosphere led to the lack of momentum for the mid plate price rebound.

The author believes that with the continuous downward shift of the international oil price center, most of the energy and chemical commodities lack confidence to continue to rise.

In addition, the supply and demand side of methanol itself has not improved, and the downstream demand side is still in the off-season stage, and the supply side is also facing great pressure.

Therefore, under the weak background, it is expected that the methanol price will continue the weak downward trend.

The focus of international oil price has continued to fall.

In the past month, the rise of international oil price has been sluggish, and it has turned into a pattern of oscillatory decline, and the price center of gravity has continued to move downward.

As the market is worried that the summer travel peak in North America will pass in the near future, and the oil consumption is facing a peak drop, it is believed that the demand potential is limited, the space for crude oil inventory to continue to decline is limited, and the contradiction of oil market supply surplus will be highlighted again. U.S. gasoline inventories rose by 911000 barrels to 24100 barrels in the week ended July 15, 11% higher than the same period last year, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Agency.

However, US crude oil inventories remained as high as 519.

5 million barrels last week, the highest level in the same period.

In the case of high crude oil inventory and the refinery is about to enter the maintenance period, the worry of oversupply will re arrest the pace of oil price rise, and the oil market bulls' confidence in aggressive attack tends to weaken and turn to be on the defensive.

The price of methanol in the external market is stable and tends to decline.

Affected by the fall of international oil price, the natural gas quotation also falls, and then lowers the methanol price in the near future.

Data show that as of July 22, CFR China's methanol fell by US $5 / T to US $220 / T in a week, while CFR Southeast Asia's methanol fell by US $4 / T to US $233 / T.

The lower quotation of methanol in the external market has turned traders' psychology of receiving goods into pessimism, and the domestic methanol price has also been obviously impacted and followed by a fall.

It is understood that the spot price of methanol in East China market last week was about 1860 yuan / ton, and the mainstream transaction price in South China market was around 1870 yuan / ton.

The quotation of methanol in inland areas declined slightly.

Among them, the Northwest market maintained a low price, the south line guidance quotation was 1450 yuan / ton, the north line quotation was 1410-1430 yuan / ton, and the Guanzhong market was 1500-1550 yuan / ton.

Considering the continuous growth trend of domestic methanol import, the import growth rate in June was as high as 104% to 901000 tons.

Therefore, under the background of increased supply and lower spot price, traders are encouraged to actively carry out positive arbitrage operation, which leads to the continuous downward shift of methanol futures price center with the spot price.

The downstream consumption sector is in the off-season.

At present, both the traditional methanol demand and olefins show a downward trend of operating load.

It is understood that the growth rate of domestic real estate investment fell to a four month low in June, which led to a decline in the growth rate of plate consumption, which led to poor shipment of formaldehyde manufacturers and forced some factories to start to reduce production load.

It is expected that the market price of formaldehyde will be dominated by weak consolidation in the future.

However, the acetic acid market continues to decline, the atmosphere of terminal procurement is weak, the contradiction between supply and demand continues, and the high inventory of manufacturers makes the price of acetic acid steadily decline.

In terms of dimethyl ether, although the trend last week was slightly strong, it is difficult to see a big rise.

At present, there are 6 enterprises with a total of 1.

03 million tons / year in maintenance status, accounting for 17.

11% of the total national capacity.

It is expected that the maintenance rate of the device will be increased in the future.

In the field of olefins, the olefin plants with annual consumption of 1.

8 million tons of methanol in Shandong Province are in shutdown state, while the olefin units with annual consumption of 5.

88 million tons of methanol in Zhejiang, Henan, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi have not been completed for maintenance.

On the whole, the startup load of methanol downstream demand industry decreased significantly, and the production load of olefin and other consumer industries also decreased slightly, and the overall demand tended to decline.

In a word, in the face of the "pain" caused by the continuous fall of the international oil price center and the steady decline of methanol price in the external market, it is difficult to obtain cost support for methanol period price, while the downstream consumption field is in the off-season, and the decline of operating load will lead to the weakening of methanol demand, which will force the "pain" of the contradiction between supply and demand to be infected again.

In short, under the stimulation of multiple "pain", it is difficult to revive the rise of methanol futures, and the weak downward road will continue in the future.

(author's unit: Baocheng futures).

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