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Summary of plasticizing market in the first half of 2016 and trend forecast in the second half of 2016

wallpapers Products 2020-09-26

[weekly topic on June 15] in the first half of 2016, challenges and opportunities coexisted in the plasticizing industry.

One belt, one road, the other is the most difficult environment for the domestic economy to develop and the external economy is optimistic.

The task of the chemical industry is to make capacity, make up the cost and reduce costs.

At the same time, the comprehensive implementation of the supply side reform and the "one belt and one way" policy has brought many opportunities for the development of the plasticized market.

The editorial department of Guangdong Plastics Exchange made an in-depth analysis on the topic of "summary of plasticization market in the first half of 2016 and trend forecast in the second half of 2016".

[editor's words] Liu Zhiqiang: the newly added capacity of PVC shock finishing is released or impacted on the market.

Since 2016, the domestic PVC market has shown a fluctuating upward trend.

However, since April, the market has fallen into a pattern of turbulence and decline.

Although there has been a rebound during this period, it is only a flash in the pan.

At the end of January, the price of PVC decreased to RMB 4680 / T before the end of the Spring Festival.

In February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, downstream concentrated replenishment, PVC market price was relatively strong, and the market offer price increased significantly again.

In March, PVC manufacturers had limited stock and firm attitude to offer.

The domestic PVC market rose again.

By the end of the month, the average price of PVC rose to 5340 yuan / ton, up 660 yuan / ton compared with the end of January.

In April, traders reduced inventory reserves, increased sales pressure on production enterprises, and market pressure on prices declined.

Since the middle of May, PVC futures market rebounded slightly.

In addition, northwest manufacturers reached a consensus on price protection again, which promoted the PVC market to recover slightly.

However, by the end of May, due to the low demand for pipes and profiles in the PVC terminal industry, the PVC market fell into a shady situation again and has continued to this day.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, the main point is PVC manufacturers to increase production capacity or impact on the market.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the domestic PVC production was 6.

9115 million tons from January to may, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. In the first half of the year, the 100000 t / a paste resin and 100000 t / a special resin of Xiyang Chemical Co., Ltd. will be put into trial operation at the end of June, the 300000 t / a ethylene PVC project of Qingdao Haijing will be put into operation in July, the 300000 t / A Salt Lake magnesium industry and 250000 T / a Xinjiang Shengxiong project will also be put into operation in the second half of the year.

In the case of PVC terminal demand close to saturation, such a large-scale increase in upstream production will undoubtedly accelerate the reshuffle of PVC industry, further enhance the industry concentration, and form new competitive pressure on the PVC industry.

If the new production capacity is released as scheduled, the impact on PVC market is self-evident.

It is expected that the future market of PVC will continue to fluctuate.

Liu ruimao: the regional market differentiation of caustic soda is intensified, and the opportunity for consolidation is greater.

The regional market differentiation of caustic soda is intensified, and the trend of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda are also different.

Boosted by the promotion of alumina capacity expansion, purchase of liquid caustic soda and centralized spring inspection of chlor alkali enterprises, the liquid alkali in North China continued to rise.

The mainstream ex factory price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong Province was reported at 560-600 yuan / T at the end of May, up 35% compared with the beginning of the year.

However, in June, the market was fully digested, and the local liquid alkali market was under pressure.

However, due to the long-term restriction of environmental protection policies in eastern China, the printing and dyeing and chemical fiber enterprises in the downstream decreased Production 50%, demand downturn drag local chlor alkali enterprises continue to reduce prices to ship goods, the market is very weak.

The market of flake caustic soda is relatively strong.

After the Spring Festival of the monkey year, the inventory of flake caustic soda is well digested.

The long-term overhaul or rotation repair of Xinjiang Tianye and Zhongtai chemical lead to the shortage of market supply.

The northwest flake caustic soda enterprises jointly raised their prices in February and may.

The market speculation was high, driving 99% of the flake caustic soda factory prices in Northwest China to 2200-2250 yuan / ton in early June, 20% higher than that at the beginning of the year Up.

Other markets remained at 2-5%.

The trend of the second half of the year is mainly affected by four factors: 1.

From January to may, the domestic caustic soda output was 13.

3645 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6%.

In the first half of the year, Qingdao Haijing 300000 tons / year and Shanxi Yangmei Xiyang Chemical Co., Ltd. increased their production capacity.

In the second half of the year, Hebei Jingxin Chemical Co., Ltd. and Jiangxi 922 chlor alkali plant increased production. 2. Moderate demand.

In addition to the strong demand for alumina, printing and dyeing, papermaking and other consumer industries demand continued to downturn. 3. Lack of business confidence.

The lack of bright spots in domestic and foreign macro-economy, the lack of confidence in entering the market and the lack of intention to stock up lead to the insufficient activity of caustic soda market. 4. Lack of cost support for upstream raw materials.

Raw salt and electric power account for more than 70% of the production cost of caustic soda.

At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the raw salt market is prominent.

The implementation of salt reform and resource tax reform has led to fierce competition among salt enterprises and sustained low salt prices.

Some provinces such as inner Mongolia will lower the industrial electricity price within the year.

Caustic soda industry in the second half of the year more negative, comprehensive forecast future market will be weak finishing.

Zheng Benyu: after PE's high falling, the market's downward space is limited.

In the first half of the year, the PE market showed a trend of rising and falling.

From January to February, PE prices fell slightly, mainly due to the continuous decline of upstream crude oil prices, which led to frequent price reduction of petrochemical manufacturers, aggravating market bearish sentiment, and the decline of PE prices.

After the Spring Festival, the inventory of petrochemical manufacturers is on the high side, and some of them have taken price reduction measures to reduce the high inventory.

However, most of the downstream factories have not returned to the market, and the traders' shipment is not smooth, which leads to the decline.

Since the end of February, PE futures have risen slightly, which has a certain boost to the market mentality.

The continuous rise of futures from March to April has led to the rise of PE spot market.

In addition, the tight supply of goods in some regions has promoted the price of PE all the way up.

From May to June, although there is still a good support for PE futures, but the weak demand for film and other terminals has always restricted the market to go higher, and the PE spot market began to fall from the previous high.

In the second half of the year, the support of upstream raw material market is limited.

Due to the gradual recovery of crude oil production in Canada, Iran and other countries, and constrained by the sluggish global economy, there is no improvement in crude oil related terminal demand.

In the future, the possibility of downward crude oil price will increase, which may bring pressure on petrochemical manufacturers to reduce prices, which will also increase the difficulty of PE market rebound.

In addition, domestic PE capacity continues to expand, and supply expansion is expected to increase.

At the end of May, China Coal Mengda pe300000 ton production capacity project was officially put into operation.

Next, a 300000 ton high-voltage device in Shenhua Xinjiang is planned to be put into operation in June, and the 700000 ton full density / high-pressure / low-pressure device of Zhongtian hechuang and 300000 ton full density device of Jiutai energy are planned to be put into operation in the second half of the year.

However, considering that July is the peak demand season of PE downstream demand industry film, or bring short-term support to the PE market, the space for PE market to continue to fall is relatively limited, and narrow adjustment is still the main theme.

Yan Xiaobing: ABS is easy to fall, but difficult to rise in the second half of the year or slow down.

In the first half of 2016, ABS showed the market trend of first rising and then falling, and the overall performance was easy to fall but difficult to rise.

At the beginning of the year, the market maintained a low finishing trend, but after the Spring Festival of the monkey year, theThe demand of downstream terminal is picking up, and the enthusiasm of market merchants is heating up.

The ABS market has a short and rapid rise, and the price has reached a new high in seven months.

The mainstream price of domestic material 0215a is 10950 yuan / ton.

Starting from the middle of March, the price of upstream raw materials has increased As a result of the cost reduction caused by the decline of styrene and the weak demand of downstream home appliances and other industries, ABS entered a slow decline channel, which continued until the first ten days of June.

As of the middle of June, the mainstream price of 0215a was 10400 yuan / ton, which was 550 yuan / ton lower than the high level in the year.

Forecast for the second half of the year: on the supply side, due to the oversupply of domestic ABS common brands and the constraint of marginal income, no new units will be put into operation in 2016, and the ABS capacity will remain at 3.

78 million tons.

However, the export volume of ABS in China is small, and the products are mainly digested in China, so the overall supply of ABS is relatively abundant.

On the demand side, in 2016, in the face of multiple negative effects, such as the new normal of domestic economy, the performance of the real estate market remained weak, the number of new home appliances orders was insufficient, and the export market performance was sluggish.

The internal and external development environment of ABS in the second half of the year was not optimistic, and the market was slow down or mainstream.

However, the traditional demand peak season of "gold nine silver ten" can still be expected, which may lead to the periodic rise of ABS market.

Conclusion: in the first half of the year, the plasticizer market rose and fell, and the overall transaction performance was poor.

In the first quarter, after the Spring Festival, businesses returned to the market in a better mood, and the market trading increased.

PVC, caustic soda, PP, PE varieties all showed a wave of rising prices.

However, the macroeconomic situation has not improved.

Whether domestic plasticization market demand or exports are not satisfactory, although international oil prices rebounded from low to above $40 / barrel, the market of polyolefin varieties suck down slowly in the two quarter of the market in the background of the lower demand market for plasticization.

However, the price fluctuation of chlor alkali varieties is relatively small due to the support of multiple insurance prices of upstream manufacturers.

In the second half of the year, the supply of plasticizer market is abundant, and there are still some new production capacity released in PVC, caustic soda and PE industries.

If it is put into operation on schedule within the year, it will have a great impact on the market of various products.

However, under the general situation of domestic and foreign macroeconomic downturn, the downstream terminal demand market of plasticization is difficult to find a good profit.

On the whole, the price adjustment of plasticizer Market in the second half of the year is still a big probability event.

During this period, individual varieties are favorable due to seasonality and sudden, or with periodic rebound trend.

(personal opinion, for reference only.

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