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U.S. economy is more likely to fall into recession

wallpapers Tech 2020-08-19
According to a survey of economists published by the Wall Street Journal recently, economists believe that the probability of the U.S. economy falling into recession next year is about 20%, twice that of the same period last year. Compared with last year, the sharp increase in their expectations of the recession is mainly due to the ongoing US presidential election. At the same time, the Economist Intelligence Unit released a research report on the US election. According to the report, the business cycle will reverse in 2019, and the U.S. economy will fall back into depression again. If there is an external shock, the time point may be advanced. The report predicts that the U.S. economy will overheat by the end of 2018, when the labor market will be close to full employment, the consumer price inflation rate will exceed 2%, and the pace of tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve will lag behind. The U.S. economy has slowed sharply. According to the latest data from various sectors in the first quarter of this year, domestic profits excluding oil, coal products and the Federal Reserve fell by 5.2% year-on-year, according to a study by Deutsche Bank. The fact is, this series of data has been declining since the second quarter of 2015. This means that the recent decline in marginal profits has little to do with a stronger dollar and lower energy prices, but with weak domestic demand and near zero growth in non-agricultural business productivity. Cheng Shi, director of the international research department of ICBC, analyzed the reporters of the international business daily. From the perspective of quantity, the new non-agricultural data of the United States in August seemed weak, but in fact it was a reasonable return to the central level of the economic recovery period. The mild recovery trend of the U.S. employment market did not waver. From the structural point of view, due to the failure of monetary easing to exit in time, the structural problems of the U.S. employment market have been deepening in many aspects, and the U.S. economy will pay a heavy price for Yellen's hesitation. It is understood that the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts the politics and economy of 200 countries in the world in the next five years, and the report predicts that the U.S. economy will enter a recession period around 2019. The U.S. economy has been expanding for seven years in a row. Judging from many trends, the U.S. economy is still healthy, and there will be three years of development, and 2019 will gradually enter a recession. The reason is similar to the previous economic depression, the interest rate level will restrain domestic demand, and the external shock may be even worse. According to Luo Siyi, a senior researcher at Chongyang Institute of Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, this is not only a serious slowdown in the US economy, but also the main reason for the global economic slowdown. He further told the international business daily that some might say that future revisions to the US data may increase its GDP growth, contrary to these actual trends. This is a matter of fact, but it depends on the data to be released in the future - the revised data in the future is lower than the current data, and it is possible. Although the gap between the GDP growth rate of the United States and that of the European Union is very close, only 0.6%, but its revised GDP growth rate is impossible to surpass that of the European Union, and of course, it will still be far lower than that of China. This shows that the U.S. data needs to be significantly revised in order to change the pattern that "the slowdown of US economic growth is the main reason for the downward trend of global economic growth". According to the data provided by Luo Siyi, compared with the second quarter of 2015, the GDP growth rate of the European Union in the second quarter of 2016 did not decline at all, with a slight decrease of 0.3% in China and a sharp decrease of 2.1% in the United States. "That is to say, by far, the United States is the major economy with the most severe slowdown in global economic growth. As a result, the pattern will not change unless there is an incredibly significant change in US data. " On the other hand, the job market is a "barometer" of the U.S. economy. Some experts believe that Yellen is reluctant to raise interest rates, but the U.S. job market will pay a heavy structural cost. Cheng Shi said in this analysis that since the end of 2014, driven by the long-term monetary easing, the "vacant job unemployment" portfolio in the United States has greatly exceeded the historical average level, and structural unemployment has replaced the unemployment of insufficient demand and become an important obstacle to the economic recovery of the United States. At this time, the key to reduce the unemployment rate is to reduce policy intervention and improve the allocation mechanism of the employment market, rather than continue to carry out policy stimulus. "Although the stimulus policy has reduced the unemployment rate during the crisis, excessive policy intervention has also led to the dysfunction of the adjustment mechanism of the employment market and damaged the overall effectiveness of the employment market. Therefore, with the mild recovery of the current employment market, monetary easing should also be ended in time, so as not to continue to restrain the efficiency of labor resource allocation. " Cheng Shi said. (mengqiu)

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