Since the beginning of 2021, domestic refined oil prices have continued to rise. Many car owners said that when they went to the gas station after the year, they obviously felt that the price of oil had risen a lot. In fact, since mid-November last year, domestic refined oil prices have risen 8 times in a row.
According to the domestic refined oil price adjustment rules, a new round of refined oil retail price adjustment window will be opened again at 24:00 on March 17. According to the forecast and analysis of relevant agencies in recent days, domestic oil prices may usher in a "9 consecutive rises."
Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of the School of Finance, Renmin University of China, told Red Star Capital Bureau: “International oil prices have been rising for a long time, and domestic refined oil prices are unavoidably affected by international influences, and may still rise in the future.” Wen, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank Bin also said that there is still room for the price of refined oil to rise.
According to the official website of the National Development and Reform Commission, the last round of price adjustments was from 24:00 on March 3, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 260 yuan and 250 yuan per ton respectively. Relevant agencies predict that after the new round of price adjustments, oil prices are expected to rise by more than 0.17 yuan per liter, and the retail price of refined oil will rise to 0.18 yuan/liter -0.21 yuan/liter, which is expected to increase by 230 yuan/ton.
Since the second half of last year, international crude oil futures prices have rebounded rapidly. "China is the largest crude oil importer and international influence is inevitable." Zhao Xijun said. In terms of the international oil price market, on March 4, OPEC+ representatives stated that they decided not to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day in April. The slow recovery of shale oil in the United States continued to provide support for international oil prices, while Saudi Arabia decided to increase production. In April, the voluntary crude oil production reduction scale was maintained at 1 million barrels per day.
"There is a smooth linkage mechanism between domestic oil prices and international oil prices. In a sense, it filters out part of the volatility of international oil prices. The volatility of domestic oil prices will be more stable, but when the international oil prices continue During long-term changes, this fluctuation will still be transmitted to the country." Zhao Xijun analyzed.
When talking about the reasons for the increase in international oil prices, Wen Bin, the chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told Red Star Capital Bureau that the main reason was the price increase caused by the imbalance of supply and demand.
In addition to supply and demand reasons, Zhao Xijun also mentioned that the rise in international oil prices is also affected by financial reasons: "Since last year, in response to the global epidemic, many central banks have issued additional currencies. When currencies with ample liquidity enter commodities, they have triggered price increases. Crude oil is the most core part of commodities."
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